For the first time since the 2017 season, the Detroit Tigers will open their season coming off of a postseason appearance. The Tigers ended last season with a miraculous run, winning 31 of 44 games to clinch a playoff berth, where they eliminated the Houston Astros to win their first postseason series since the 2013 ALDS. The Tigers’ season ended at the hands of their division foe, the Cleveland Guardians, but the Tigers left their mark and showed the rest of the MLB that they are ready to compete.
Now the Tigers aim to win the AL Central for the first time since the 2014 season, but will face an uphill battle, playing in a division that featured two other playoff teams besides themselves, as well as a Minnesota Twins squad that was in the playoff picture the majority of last season before a September collapse saw them on the outside looking in.
But the Tigers have the squad to do so, featuring lefty-flamethrower and reigning Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal. Detroit also brought back starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, who was sent to the Dodgers at the last minute of last year’s trade deadline. The Tigers rotation will also feature third-year starter Reese Olson, who had a great under-the-radar season in 2024, posting a 116 ERA+ (Earned Run Average +), meaning he was 16% above the average pitcher by ERA. Filling out the rest of the rotation will be former number one overall draft pick, Casey Mize, who had a great spring training, and former top pitching prospect who was drafted third overall in 2021, Jackson Jobe, who, if he reaches his ceiling, can be among the best pitchers in the sport.
The Tigers know what they have in Skubal, he solidified himself as one of the premier pitchers in baseball last season and will continue his dominance this season. If the Tigers want to make a run, the pitching will have to do most of the heavy lifting. While the pitching should remain solid like that of last year, it’s not a guarantee. Pitching in baseball tends to fluctuate every year, players can have all-star caliber seasons, and the next year they can be at the back end of the rotation. Something similar has happened to Flaherty before. In 2019 he was one of the best pitchers in the National League, but it took him until last season to really capture that ability again.
Flaherty proved to be one of the signings of the season last year, not just for the Tigers, but in all of baseball. Flaherty posted an ERA of 2.95 in a Tigers jersey before being traded. It was a great move to bring Flaherty back to Detroit, but my one worry was his playoff ERA last year. Flaherty was able to win a ring with the Dodgers but posted a 7.36 ERA in the process. Now, it was only a five-game sample size, but it is interesting considering how well he had pitched all season to that point.
Perhaps the most perplexing player on the Tigers’ pitching staff is Mize. The former first overall draft choice has certainly had his ups and downs to start his career. After a nice start to his career in 2021, Mize underwent Tommy John surgery after just two starts in the 2022 season, causing him to miss all of 2023. Mize struggled to regain his 2021-self last season, posting a 4.49 ERA in 20 starts. However, this spring, Mize appeared in six games, throwing 19 innings, striking out 25 while holding an ERA of 1.89. If the Mize we saw in spring training carries over into the regular season, the Tigers’ pitching will get a whole lot deeper.
The last two names of the starting rotation are Jobe and Olson. With Olson, I think most people know what they’re getting, a solid number three starter that has the capability of striking out 10+ batters in a game. Jobe, on the other hand, we have not seen a lot of in the majors. Jobe was briefly called up at the end of last season and only appeared in relief for the team. It’s safe to say that Jobe looked a little shaky in the playoffs during his short stint, which is fine. Rookies struggle in the majors, I’m not expecting Jobe to have a phenomenal year. If he does, that is great, if not, he’s only 22.
The position players on the squad is where problems may arise for the team. One thing is for sure about the Tigers’ hitting is that they have two rock-solid hitters on the team: Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. Greene, a former top-five prospect on MLB Pipeline, notched his first all-star appearance, posting an .827 OPS, 24 home runs, and a 4.0 fWAR (Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement), which ranked fifth among all left fielders. Carpenter had an OPS above .900 before sustaining an injury at the end of May, which could have cost him an all-star bid. Still, in 87 games, Carpenter knocked out 18 home runs and finished with an OPS of .932.
The rest of the squad remains a question mark for now. New acquisition Gleyber Torres, who signed a one-year deal with Detroit over the offseason, would have to be third on the list for hitters that you can rely on. Torres has a career OPS of .774, which is not a bad number, however, when you take his OPS since 2020, that number drops to .743, which still plays in a Tigers lineup that needs offense but is maybe not the ideal third-best hitter in a lineup. Still, Torres’ impact will be felt in the team’s lineup.
Luckily for the Tigers, they are a young team and have a few players that could have “breakout seasons” and give the Tigers a spark on offense they did not have last year. Some of those players include Colt Keith, Spencer Torkelson, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Trey Sweeney, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez and Parker Meadows.
Meadows looked to be the obvious breakout candidate for the Tigers after his second half of last season. Meadows debuted in 2023 and played well enough to earn a spot on last year’s opening day roster. But after a rough first month of the season, Meadows was sent back down to Triple-A Toledo before being called back up to the big leagues in July, where he would sustain an injury that kept him out until August.
From that point on in August, Meadows took off, instantly becoming one of the Tigers’ most important players. August was the turning point of the Tiger’s season last year, and the rise of Meadows played a key part. Meadows posted an OPS of .840 in the second half of last season compared to his .533 OPS in the first half. Meadows played in 82 games for the team last year. The Tigers’ record in those games? 54-28. A mere coincidence perhaps, but it was clear Meadows played a huge part in their success.
The bad news? Meadows is on the 60-day injured list to start the year with a nerve injury he picked up in spring training. Perez also will start the season injured, while Jung and Malloy start the year in Toledo. Which leaves the Tigers with three out of the seven names mentioned to start the year. Keith and Sweeney showed flashes in their rookie years and can become big names for the Tigers, but the name that sticks out is Torkelson.
Torkelson, like Mize, was a number one overall draft pick. Torkelson ripped through the minor leagues in just one season of work and was officially on the big league roster in 2022. Torkelson struggled mightily during his rookie year and was sent back to Toledo in the middle of it. But 2023 was where Torkelson found his groove, hitting over 30 home runs, with advanced metrics suggesting he should’ve had a better year than what occurred. 2024 was supposed to be the year of the Torkelson breakout, but it never happened. Just like his rookie year, Torkelson was sent down to the minors, something that’s not too common for a number one overall draft choice in their third year.
But once again, just like Mize, Torkelson had himself an encouraging spring training, hitting five home runs in 50 at-bats and posting an OPS of 1.069. If the Tigers get the spring training version of Torkelson, it will provide a much-needed bat to the offense.
Then there’s the Javier Báez dilemma. Báez used to be a polarizing player on the team, but I don’t think he even has the polarizing title anymore. The consensus on Báez is that he is essentially finished, his best days are long gone. But, the Tigers will be paying him around $25 million dollars a year for the next three seasons. Thank you Al Avila. If the Tigers can even get 10 home runs and an OPS over .600 from Báez, they should be thankful.
Lastly, there’s the bullpen. Last year was a fantastic year for the Tigers’ pen, ranking fifth in ERA. Bullpens, however, are weird. If the Tigers went from top-five to bottom-five, I wouldn’t be stunned, although I don’t think that will happen, baseball can get strange at times. One name to watch out for in the Tigers’ bullpen is Tyler Holton, who has had a sub-2.20 ERA in the last two seasons. Holton won’t blow you away with his pitch velocity, and he won’t strike many batters out, but he knows when and where to locate pitchers, which makes him as effective as he is.
Predictions
Tigers don’t win their division, but make the playoffs. I think the Tigers missing Meadows for the first two months of the season will hurt the team’s chances of winning the division, but in the long run I think the Tigers still have enough talent to make the playoffs in the American League.
Skubal wins back-to-back Cy Youngs. Just like last year, I think the Cy Young is Skubal’s award to lose. My gut feeling is that finishing behind Skubal will be Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox and Jacob DeGrom of the Rangers, with Max Fried of the Yankees and Cole Ragans of the Royals rounding out the top five. There is a lot of talent pitching-wise in the AL, but Skubal tops the list.
Riley Greene finishes top10 in MVP voting. Greene, a first-time all-star last season, has only improved every year of his young career, and I don’t see that stopping this season. Greene is among the best outfielders in the AL, and if the Tigers make the postseason again, he should begin to receive the attention of voters.
Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr. take home the MVP’s. It feels like it could be the year for Witt, who finished second in MVP last season only to Aaron Judge, who had 58 home runs. Witt, who’s only 24, will continue to dominate the AL for years to come. As for Ohtani, as if his legacy was not already solidified, another MVP would mean only Barry Bonds has more. A fourth MVP for Ohtani should mean he is a unanimous first-ballot Hall of Famer.
The Dodgers win the World Series against the Rangers in five games. The Dodgers winning the World Series seems all but inevitable with the talent they have. But particularly in baseball, the best team doesn’t always win, like the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who won 116 games but failed to reach the Fall Classic. The Rangers won the World Series in 2023 and are my pick to make it back for the American League, which to me seems wide open for the taking. If it’s not the Rangers, the Red Sox stand out to me as a team to potentially watch.
